A supercharged geopolitical supercycle

COP30 and NDC submission – COP30 will serve as a telling inflection point for NDCs, revealing whether these updated goals will allow the world to course-correct back down to a 1.5°C or 2°C warming track when 1.5°C already appears breached, at least for now. It will also provide another opportunity for countries to show whether they are serious about ratcheting down fossil fuel production and use, and whether they can implement adequate climate change adaptation financing for the most vulnerable countries.

G20 meetings – The first African country to host the G20 summit, South Africa, will face a series of issues very much interlinked with climate action and geopolitics: How do we tackle runaway debt in developing countries and reform global financial architecture? How can we boost lower-income countries’ participation in COP and other critical climate forums? How will countries provide food for all while responding to evolving climate changes that attack agriculture? South Africa, which has undertaken a massive just transition effort as it plans for life after coal, will highlight a unique intersection of development challenges and solutions that can serve as lessons for the rest of the G20.

China Africa Forum – 2025 is the first year in which we will see how China’s Xi Jinping follows through on his $50 billion pledge to African countries in the next three years. How soon will it happen, and what will it look like? Will the investment foster self-determination in Africa’s development, or will the continent become more reliant on China’s chequebook? Will China allow debt-saddled countries to restructure their loans so they can climb out of debt, or will this outward act of goodwill throw African economies into further turmoil, further delaying their climate and green tech ambitions?

Financing for Development Forum – As an ongoing dialogue between countries on their progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the 2030 Agenda, the current Financing for Development Forum ends in June 2025. A 2024 UN Financing for Sustainable Development report warned that financing challenges are pushing the world off-track to meet the SDGs by 2030 and take adequate climate action. At a time when countries struggle to meet minimum standards for climate finance, the report says $4 trillion more is needed annually to support developing countries’ sustainable development needs.

BRICS summit – The 2024 BRICS summit in Russia highlighted the US’s inability to marginalize Putin on the international stage and the expanding group of countries continues to make moves toward de-dollarization, which would erode US dominance over global markets and allow countries more freedom in their own economic policies. BRICS nations also resist entrenched international forums like the UN, World Bank and International Monetary Fund as means of economic and political coercion against non-Western nations. As Brazil takes on the 2025 BRICS presidency, will an ascent of BRICS nations intensify East-West rivalries? How will they reshape the global order? And will western nations respond punitively to this changing dynamic, possibly further driving more nations into the BRICS fold, or consent to a more multi-polar dynamic?

Climate change at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) – More than 100 countries, led by Vanuatu, closed 2024 with two weeks of hearings before the ICJ in The Hague, arguing for legal liability for countries who contribute the most to climate change. The decision, expected in 2025, can bring historic consequences for future climate litigation. If the court finds that countries face legal consequences for actions that harm the environment, it may open another avenue for climate action outside ineffectual COP summits.