Mexico’s noncommittal response to Carney’s G7 invite reflects domestic focus, Trump doubts

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Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum sounded rather somber when responding to a question about whether she will attend next month’s Group of Seven Leaders’ Summit in Kananaskis, Alta.

Ms. Sheinbaum this week confirmed that she received a G7 invitation from Prime Minister Mark Carney during a phone call congratulating him after last month’s federal election win. But she remains noncommittal about the trip to Canada.

“I haven’t yet decided whether I’ll attend or not, but it’s a possibility. I thanked him for the invitation,” she said Wednesday. “We’re evaluating, given the current situation in the country, the possibility of attending.”

Ms. Sheinbaum’s invitation to the G7 meeting, reported Tuesday by The Globe and Mail, raises hopes for sideline talks with U.S. President Donald Trump on tariffs and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) ahead of a scheduled 2026 review of the continental trade accord.

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It would also be the first gathering of the three North American leaders since Mr. Trump took office, along with the first meetings for Ms. Sheinbaum with her current Canadian and U.S. counterparts.

“It’s a no-brainer,” said Arturo Sarukhán, former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. “It’s a perfect venue to sort of have personal conversations, to press the flesh, to create some chemistry and stakeholder relationships with some of her peers.”

But the decision has proved complicated for Ms. Sheinbaum, who has only travelled abroad twice since taking office in October, 2024, including the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Brazil where she met then-prime minister Justin Trudeau.

She has preferred to follow the example of her mentor and predecessor, former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, by rarely travelling abroad. It’s a practice he considered extravagant, but reflective of his parochial politics and disinterest in international affairs.

Ms. Sheinbaum is also occupied with difficult domestic politics, including rising violence, a stagnant economy and nationwide judicial elections. More than 800 judges, including supreme court justices, will be chosen in a Sunday vote marked by controversial candidates, widespread apathy and an opposition boycott.

There are also the challenges of dealing with Mr. Trump, whom Ms. Sheinbaum has preferred not to criticize. Analysts posit that she wants to avoid situations – such as summits – in which Mexico might inadvertently anger Mr. Trump by joining the actions of others.

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“It’s this utter lack of understanding of how Washington and the U.S. works,” Mr. Sarukhan said. “There’s panic that they do anything that could be construed by Trump as ganging up on him.”

The reluctance to attend the G7 also reflects Mexico’s complicated relations with both Canada and the United States, according to analysts.

Under Mr. López Obrador, commonly called AMLO, relations with Canada strained. Canadian firms complained his nationalistic energy policies harmed clean energy investments. Canada’s former ambassador to Mexico, Graeme C. Clark, voiced mild concerns from investors over the judicial reform last fall – only to have Mr. López Obrador “pause” relations.

Mr. Trudeau drew Ms. Sheinbaum’s ire after he mentioned raising “real and genuine concerns about Chinese investment into Mexico” during their meeting in Brazil. Comments from Canadian premiers on cutting Mexico out of the USMCA deal generated discontent, too.

“There’s some mistrust toward the Canadians,” said Alexia Bautista, a former diplomat and lead analyst for Mexico at political risk consultancy Horizon Engage. “But there’s also a clear awareness of the need for pragmatism and the importance of preserving the USMCA.”

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Relations with the U.S. have proved even thornier for Ms. Sheinbaum. She has won plaudits for handling the temperamental Mr. Trump with her approach of keeping a “cool head.” Her approval rating has soared to north of 80 per cent. Mr. Trump has also spoken well of Ms. Sheinbaum.

The U.S. President’s ask of Mexico appears to be increasing, however. Ms. Sheinbaum has quietly conceded to demands such as stopping migrants, stepping up action on drug cartels and sending 29 crime bosses to the United States.

But The Wall Street Journal reported that Mr. Trump urged Ms. Sheinbaum to permit U.S. forces to take on drug cartels – an idea she has rejected. Mr. Trump previously accused the Mexican government of maintaining an “intolerable alliance” with drug cartels, to which Ms. Sheinbaum bitterly objected.

The U.S. government has also started revoking the visas of politicians in the Mexican President’s MORENA party whom Washington alleges are linked to the drug trade, according to ProPublica. The Governor of the Mexican state of Baja California revealed that she and her husband had lost their U.S. visas, but denied any wrongdoing.

Mr. Trump has put everything on the table in negotiations with Mexico – trade, security and migration – which complicates Canada-Mexico cooperation, according to Federico Estévez, political science professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico.

“For Canada, it’s only about trade. It isn’t about drugs. It isn’t about migration,” Prof. Estévez said. “But for Mexico, it’s everything. It’s all rolled up to one big ball, and it’s going to explode. It is exploding.”